推特原文：

Sam Altman：

2023/3/3

language models just being programmed to try to predict the next word is true, but it's not the dunk some people think it is. animals, including us, are just programmed to try to survive and reproduce, and yet amazingly complex and beautiful stuff comes from it.

语言模型只是被编程为尝试预测下一个单词的这个观点是正确的，但也不仅仅是某些人们想的那样。动物，包括人类，也只是被编码为尝试生存和繁衍，但他们却令人惊讶地产生了一些复杂和漂亮的东西。

2023/2/27

A new version of moore's law that could start soon: the amount of intelligence in the universe doubles every 18 months

新版摩尔定律将开始了：宇宙中的智能数量每个18月翻一番

2023/2/25

Planning for AGI and beyond

https://openai.com/blog/planning-for-agi-and-beyond

2023/2/19

The adaptation to a world deeply integrated with AI tools is probably going to happen pretty quickly; The benefits (and fun!) have too much upside.

适应与人工智能工具深度融合的世界可能会很快发生；这其中的好处（乐趣）有很多。

These tools will help us be more productive (can't wait to spend less time doing email!), healthier (AI medical advisors for people who can’t afford care), smarter (students using ChatGPT to learn), and more entertained (AI memes lolol).

这些工具这些工具将帮助我们提高工作效率（迫不及待地想花更少的时间处理电子邮件！），让我们更健康（为无力支付医疗费用的人提供 AI 医疗顾问），让我们更聪明（学生使用 ChatGPT 学习）和更多娱乐（AI meme）。

A transition like this is mostly good, and can happen somewhat fast—the transition from the pre-smartphone world to post-smartphone world is a recent example. but it'll be tempting to go super quickly, which is frightening—society needs time to adapt to something so big.

像这样的转变大多是好的，而且可能会发生得很快——从前智能手机世界到后智能手机世界的转变就是最近的一个例子。但是也可能发展的太快了，这很可怕——因为社会需要时间来适应这么大的事情。

There will be more challenges like bias and people coming away unsettled from talking to a chatbot, even if they know what's really going on.

这将会有更多挑战，例如偏见，以及人们在与聊天机器人交谈时会感到不安，即使他们知道真正发生了什么。

We think showing these tools to the world early, while still somewhat broken, is critical if we are going to have sufficient input and repeated efforts to get it right. The level of individual empowerment coming is wonderful, but not without serious challenges.

我们认为如果我们要有足够的投入和反复的努力来把人工智能做好，即使它还有一些缺陷，但尽早向世界展示这些工具也是至关重要的。即将到来的赋予个人的能力水平会很好，但并非没有严峻的挑战。

We also need enough time for our institutions to figure out what to do. Regulation will be critical and will take time to figure out; Although current-generation AI tools aren't very scary, I think we are potentially not that far away from potentially scary ones.

我们还需要足够的时间让我们的机构弄清楚该做什么。监管将是至关重要的，需要时间来弄清楚；尽管当前这一代的人工智能工具不是很可怕，但我认为我们距离潜在的可怕工具可能并不遥远。

Having time to understand what's happening, how people want to use these tools, and how society can co-evolve is critical.

了解发生了什么，人们希望如何使用这些工具以及社会如何共同发展是至关重要的。

2023/2/17

Our current thoughts on hard questions about how AI systems should behave: 1)less biased defaults, 2)lots of user customization within very broad bounds, 3) public input on bounds and defaults.

This is going to take continual iteration—and lots and lots of societal input—to get right.

To find the right balance, we will likely overcorrect several times, and find new edges in the technology.

我们目前对AI系统应该如何表现这一难题的想法：1）更少的默认偏见，2）非常广泛的范围内的大量用户自定义，3）关于边界和默认值的公共输入。这将需要不断的迭代——以及大量的社会投入——才能正确。为了找到合适的平衡点，我们可能会矫枉过正几次，并在技术中找到新的优势。

2023/2/14

I think AI is going to be the greatest force for economic empowerment and a lot of people getting rich we have ever seen.

人工智能将成为经济赋权的最强大力量，并且我们熟悉的很多人将变得富有。

2022/12/27

There will be scary moments as we move towards AGI-level systems, and significant disruptions, but the upsides can be so amazing that it's well worth overcoming the great challenges to get there.

在我们向 AGI 级系统迈进的过程中，会有可怕的时刻和重大的中断，但好处是惊人的，因此克服巨大的挑战是非常值得的。

2022/12/19

The most that OpenAI, or any other company, can do is to steer the AI revolution a little. This will impact all aspects of society, and will be an emgergent thing created and shaped by all of us. Much much bigger than any company.

Also, once a technological revolution starts, it cannot be stopped. But it can be directed, and we can contintually figure out how to make the new world much better.

OpenAI或任何其他公司所能做的最多就是稍微引导人工智能革命。这将影响到社会的方方面面，我们所有人将共同创造和塑造的一个比任何公司都大得多的新兴事物。

而且，技术革命一旦开始，就无法停止。但它可以被引导，我们可以不断弄清楚如何让新世界变得更好。

2019/1/6

Predictions for the three most important technological developments that will happen by 2025:

1)We will get net-gain nuclear fusion working at prototype scale

2)AGI will feel within reach to many people industry

3)Gene editing will have cured at least one major disease

对到 2025 年将发生的三项最重要技术发展的预测：

1）我们将在原型规模上实现净增益核聚变

2）AGI 将在许多人的行业触手可及

3）基因编辑将至少治愈一种重大疾病

2022/12/17

AI should both provide the most individual economic empowerment of any technology ever and also make it so that no one has to work who doesn't want to. It will be an astounding force multiplier; I am excited to see how big a one-person company can get! And happy people are going to be very successful.

AI 应该既提供任何技术中最个性化的经济赋权，也可以让不想工作的人不用工作。这将是一个惊人的力量倍增器；我很期待看到一个一人公司能有多大！快乐的人会非常成功。

Ilya Sutskever—Chief Scientist & Co-Founder

2023/2/9

Many believe that great AI advances must contain a new "idea". But it is not so: many of AI's greatest advances had the form "huh, turns out this familiar unimportant idea, when done right, is downright incredible".

许多人认为，伟大的人工智能进步必须包含一个新的“想法”。但事实并非如此：许多AI最伟大的进步都有这样的形式：“嗯，事实证明，这个熟悉的不重要的想法，如果做得对，是彻头彻尾的不可思议”。

2022/10/11

A near term effect of human level AGI could be not unlike that of massive scale very high skilled immigration. (this assumes bona fide superintelligence will take an additional while which may or may not true)

人类水平的AGI的近期影响可能与大规模非常高技能移民的影响没有什么不同。（这假设真正的超级智能需要额外的时间，这可能是正确的，也可能不是正确的）

Greg Brockman—President & Co-Founder

2023/2/19

Code is much easier than people. Maybe one reason that classic AI safety thinking focuses so exclusively on the technical alignment problem—misuse harder to solve through theory. But for good future with AI, must do an A+ job on both alignment and societal rollout.

代码比人容易得多。也许经典人工智能安全思想如此专注于技术对齐问题的原因之一是更难通过理论解决滥用问题。但为了AI的美好未来，必须在对齐和社会推广方面做到 A+的水平。

2023/2/18

Most surprising part of startups has always been how little your technology itself matters, relative to solving an actual user problem. But LLMs are so powerful that if you can get the technology working at all, you’ll soon find you've solved many problems in one go.

初创公司最令人惊讶的部分一直是，相对于解决实际用户问题，你的技术本身并不重要。但是LLM是如此强大，以至于如果你能让这项技术发挥作用，你很快就会发现你已经一次性解决了很多问题。

2023/2/13

Most amazing fact about AI is that even though it's starting to feel impressive, a year from now we'll look back fondly on the AI that exists today as quaint and antiquated.

关于 AI 最令人惊奇的事实是，尽管它开始令人印象深刻，但一年后我们会深情地回顾今天存在的 AI，因为它古怪而过时。

2023/1/7

Big takeaway from the GPT paradigm is that the world of text is a far more complete description of the human experience that almost anyone anticipated.

GPT 范式的一大收获是，文本世界是对几乎任何人都预料到的人类体验的更完整描述。

2023/1/1

Prediction: 2023 will make 2022 look like a sleepy year for AI advancement & adoption.

预测：由于AI的进步和应用，2023年将是2022年看起来像一个无聊的年份

2022/12/6

A decent prediction on HN: "well, right now we're in the 'flip-phone'era of AI. In 10 years from now, mark this prediction:nearly everyone will have an AI counterpart that is trained and unique to each individual.""People who have no experience in a field will suddenly be enanled to operate in that field alone. Meanwhile, people who already had experience in that field will now be even more effective and efficient."

一个在HN上不错的预测：“现在我们正处于人工智能的‘翻盖手机’时代。从现在起10年起，几乎每个人都会拥有一个经过训练且对每个人来说都是独一无二的AI副手。”“在某个领域没有经验的人会突然被授权独自在那个领域工作。与此同时，已经在该领域有经验的人会更加有效和高效。”