China CX0: Today 9AM call w/ our long-standing, DC based US Medical Policy analyst Andrew Bresslerattracted 151 sign-ups.Unfortunately, the key takeaways paint a bearish tone on the Biosecure Act Bil in terms of legislationuncertainty and extent of coverage/impact facing China CXOs. Probably reassure those who decide tostep away from the turmoil and sell early:
1. Legislation timetable: Already 6 senator votes secured at the Senate Homeland Security Committeechaired by Gary Peters on Jan 31.
It's a matter of time and likely earliest by next week to be passed to the House for discussions. NDAexpected to be end of year 14024 with legislation probably by March next year earliest.2. Depth/Extent of coverage could be under-estimated. Against some belief that "only federally fundedprojects" would be affected, it is possible that biotech projects /hospitals/ equipment along the US supply(value) chain that taps the US healthcare insurance i.e. Medicare, Medicaid etc. might be affected.3. Impact to existing/future projects ongoing for years? Clinical/ pre-clinical trials in US might be lessaffected, but e.g. genomics would be sensitive for sure. Key is whether US or China cos are handling thedata control; there might be little room to negotiate if it's out of US control.4. Ways to evade as legislation process has started? Options include changing mamt (might be consideredbut not guaranteed ok), lobbying (but it will take time and inconclusive at this stage). Key is China cosburden of proof to show no data security risks. There might be a chance for names currently not on thelist to get prepared in case of inquiries though.5. From the ways investors were asking questions today, the focus on topics like legislation timetableways to evade just shows that stil many investors are parking money and hoping to hear someturnaround scenarios...but they might get a bit disappointed.
Andrew Bressler's Bio: Bressler covers Health Care in Washington DC. Regular Research reports includeOuarterly Washington Healt